{"id":111839,"date":"2022-05-24T16:21:36","date_gmt":"2022-05-24T12:21:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forbes.ge\/?p=111839"},"modified":"2022-05-24T16:21:36","modified_gmt":"2022-05-24T12:21:36","slug":"putin-is-failing-in-ukraine-but-winning-in-georgia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.forbes.ge\/en\/putin-is-failing-in-ukraine-but-winning-in-georgia\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin Is Failing in Ukraine, But Winning in Georgia"},"content":{"rendered":"

This article was originally published on The Bulwark<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n

The government in Tbilisi is taking pages from Putin\u2019s playbook.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Ukraine and Georgia have long been the two most pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-democracy countries on Russia\u2019s borders, struggling with fits and starts toward Euro-Atlantic integration and the rule of law. For thirty years, it has often seemed that as one made progress, the other backslid. The same pattern is repeating itself as brave Ukrainians beat back Russian offensives and joke about allowing NATO to join Ukraine, while Georgia, their Black Sea neighbor, heads in the wrong direction.<\/p>\n

Georgia\u2019s geography may straddle East and West, but\u00a0opinion polls<\/a>\u00a0consistently show large majorities support joining NATO (75 percent) and the EU (88 percent). Georgia\u2019s ruling party, Georgian Dream, rhetorically still supports a Western integration policy. But its actions show the Georgian Dream government is clearly casting its lot with the wrong crowd.<\/p>\n

Particularly since the crisis in Ukraine, Georgia\u2019s governance has increasingly resembled the Russian model, complete with one-party rule and persecution of the opposition. The United States and its European allies need to exercise their influence with Georgia to help rein in these destructive forces. We owe it to the many Georgians who hope to join the EU and NATO to impose travel bans and other sanctions on those who are undermining hope for a future with the West.<\/p>\n

The latest disturbing step in Georgia\u2019s march toward authoritarianism occurred last week when a judge sentenced Nika Gvaramia, the director of leading opposition TV channel \u201cMtvari Arkhi,\u201d to more than three years in prison on politically motivated\u00a0charges<\/a>. The U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi said in a statement that Gvaramia\u2019s case \u201ccalls into question Georgia\u2019s commitment to rule of law<\/a>\u201d and suggested it sends the wrong signal about its Western orientation at a time \u201cwhen Georgia has an unprecedented opportunity to advance its Euro-Atlantic integration.\u201d<\/p>\n

Georgian Dream keeps a firm grip on the judiciary and law enforcement not only to ensure judicial outcomes in its political and economic favor, but also to prevent a robust opposition. It has waged a campaign of persecution and demonization against leaders of the country\u2019s opposition, particularly the United National Movement. Georgia\u2019s former president, Mikheil Saakashvili,\u00a0imprisoned<\/a>\u00a0after returning to Georgia from Ukraine last fall, has suffered declining health and\u00a0poor treatment<\/a>\u00a0in prison.<\/p>\n

The Georgian Dream government seems to calculate its decisions based not on whether a policy furthers integration with Western norms, but whether it might upset the dictator in the Kremlin. In its domestic policy, the government has been steadily gathering all the reins of power, in all three branches of government, and marginalizing or dismantling institutions that could provide a check on that power. This has been particularly apparent in its refusal to make reforms urged by the U.S., Europe, and NGOs to ensure an independent judiciary.<\/p>\n

The urges to gather power and persecute the political opposition are not new in Georgian politics. The leaders of two previous governments, Saakashvili and Eduard Shevardnadze, were accused of the same tendency. What is starkly different with this regime, however, is its appeasement of Russia and indifference to, if not outright dismissal of, Western concerns about the slowness or even abandonment of reforms.<\/p>\n

For example, in addition to rebuffing calls to stop the political use of the judiciary, the Georgian Dream government has\u00a0abrogated a U.S. and EU-brokered agreement<\/a>\u00a0to implement necessary electoral reforms, supported NGOs and other\u00a0actors who undermine Western values and promote cultural ties with Russia<\/a>, and\u00a0cancelled the Anaklia deep-water port<\/a>\u00a0on the Black Sea and other infrastructure projects that Russia opposed.<\/p>\n

Most concerning is Georgian Dream\u2019s policy toward the war in Ukraine. As a fellow victim of a hostile Russian invasion, Georgia should be a natural ally of Ukraine. Instead, the Georgian government\u2019s refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, its prevention of its citizens from joining the fight in Ukraine, and its alleged efforts to help Russia avoid sanctions prompted Ukraine to withdraw its ambassador from Tbilisi.<\/p>\n

Much like Putin, leaders of Georgian Dream seem to see the war primarily as an opportunity to bash theiry opponents. Party head Irakli Kobakhidze criticized the embattled Ukrainian government for withdrawing its ambassador and\u00a0accused<\/a> it of a \u201ccoordinated attempt to drag Georgia directly into the armed conflict\u201d in cahoots with the United National Movement.\u00a0Prime Minister Garibashvili claimed<\/a>\u00a0that were former president (and now prisoner) Saakashvili still in power, Georgia would be the site of \u201ca second Mariupol.\u201d<\/p>\n

Why has Georgia taken this stance of appeasement, especially when three-quarters of Georgians\u00a0surveyed<\/a>\u00a0believe Russian aggression toward Georgia is still going on, and why is it attacking Ukraine\u2019s embattled leaders? Supporters of the government claim it\u2019s because of Georgia\u2019s vulnerability without the security guarantees of NATO. Frustration with the lack of progress toward NATO membership, promised at the\u00a0Bucharest summit<\/a>\u00a014 years ago, is real. But as noted, three quarters of Georgians still support NATO membership, and in light of Russia\u2019s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the West should be beefing up its military assistance for Georgia, as well as Ukraine.<\/p>\n

In contrast to overwhelming public opinion, prominent members of the Georgian Dream inner circle, particularly billionaire former Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili, have been accused of protecting their personal economic links with Russia. The latest example came in recently revealed\u00a0tapes of alleged telephone conversations<\/a>\u00a0between Ivanishvili and Russian oligarch Vladimir Yevtushenkov in March\u2014i.e., after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yevtushenkov is under British and Australian sanctions.<\/p>\n

In two cases within the past two years that should get Ivanishvili\u2019s attention, the United States imposed travel bans on a\u00a0Ukrainian oligarch and former official, Ihor Kolomoyskyy<\/a>, and on the Moldovan oligarch and former prime minister\u00a0Vladimir Plahotniuc<\/a>, due to their involvement in \u201csignificant corruption\u201d and \u201ccorrupt acts that undermined the rule of law and severely compromised the independence of democratic institutions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Unlike the recent sanctions imposed on the Putin regime, the sanctions on Kolomoyskyy and Plahotniuc were imposed on oligarchs in countries friendly to the United States. That is tough love, but it also is much needed and overdue in Ivanishvili\u2019s case, too. Like Kolomoyskyy and Plahotniuc, who were no longer in government when they were sanctioned, Ivanishvili and his inner circle are not accountable to the voters, though they clearly have an outsize influence on the government\u2019s decisions and policies.<\/p>\n

Along Russia\u2019s periphery are a number of compliant regimes, fearful of cooperating with the EU and NATO and provoking Putin\u2019s ire. It is not too late to prevent Georgia from becoming another such regime. But the United States and its European allies must do more, now, to show their concern about these tendencies. They must act to discourage the Georgian government, and particularly those behind the scenes pulling the strings, from making decisions and implementing policies that push Georgia further from the West, and closer to Russia.<\/p>\n

<\/h4>\n

Ian Kelly<\/strong>\u00a0is ambassador (ret.) in residence at Northwestern University\u00a0<\/strong>and\u00a0<\/strong>was U.S. ambassador to Georgia from 2015 to 2018.<\/p>\n

David J. Kramer<\/strong> is Managing Director for Global Policy at the George W. Bush Institute and served as Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor in the George W. Bush administration.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This article was originally published on The Bulwark. The government in Tbilisi is taking pages from Putin\u2019s playbook. Ukraine and Georgia have long been the two most pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-democracy countries on Russia\u2019s borders, struggling with fits and starts toward Euro-Atlantic integration and the rule of law. For thirty years, it has often seemed that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":111845,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1747,1753,1770,1768,1752],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-111839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-georgia","category-op-ed","category-opinions","category-politics-en","has-thumb"],"yoast_head":"\nPutin Is Failing in Ukraine, But Winning in Georgia • Forbes Georgia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dev.forbes.ge\/en\/putin-is-failing-in-ukraine-but-winning-in-georgia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Putin Is Failing in Ukraine, But Winning in Georgia • Forbes Georgia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This article was originally published on The Bulwark. The government in Tbilisi is taking pages from Putin\u2019s playbook. Ukraine and Georgia have long been the two most pro-EU, pro-NATO, pro-democracy countries on Russia\u2019s borders, struggling with fits and starts toward Euro-Atlantic integration and the rule of law. 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