{"id":205803,"date":"2025-07-15T16:25:59","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T12:25:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forbes.ge\/?p=205803"},"modified":"2025-08-05T17:31:34","modified_gmt":"2025-08-05T13:31:34","slug":"strategic-autonomy-understanding-georgia-s-foreign-policy-realignment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.forbes.ge\/en\/strategic-autonomy-understanding-georgia-s-foreign-policy-realignment\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategic Autonomy?: Understanding Georgia\u2019s Foreign Policy Realignment"},"content":{"rendered":"

Georgia\u2019s foreign policy trajectory under <\/span>Georgian Dream<\/span><\/a> is a warning. In the current era of great power competition, insecure small states are becoming prime targets for authoritarian manipulation. NATO\u2019s attention to its periphery has lagged \u2014 allowing once-reliable partners to drift, hedge, and in some cases, recalibrate entirely.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For Moscow and Beijing, the post-Cold War international order became <\/span>irrelevant<\/span><\/a> with Russia\u2019s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. During a visit to the Kremlin in March 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Russian President Vladimir Putin that \u201c<\/span>… right now [changes] \u2014 the likes of which [haven\u2019t] been seen for 100 years<\/span><\/a>,\u201d were occurring, and that they were \u201c<\/span>… the ones driving those changes together<\/span><\/a>.\u201d Working in tandem alongside other revisionist powers like Iran and North Korea, Russia and China are asserting spheres of influence in their respective regions. Collectively, their long-term aim is to <\/span>challenge<\/span><\/a> the global hegemony of the United States.<\/span><\/p>\n

In regions like the South Caucasus, contestation between great powers has created volatility for small states. Many have shifted to postures of <\/span>strategic autonomy<\/span><\/a>, attempting to balance relations with all powers competing in their region. In doing so, they hope to mitigate vulnerabilities that might force them to align with one power over others; prolonging their sovereignty for as long as possible.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Reversing decades of prior movement towards a <\/span>Western geopolitical orientation<\/span><\/a>, Georgia has taken what amounts to a pro-Russian stance on the Russo-Ukrainian War. The government <\/span>refused<\/span><\/a> to formally join Western sanctions against Russia or support Ukraine with <\/span>military aid<\/span><\/a>. At the same time, they continued to deepen <\/span>economic ties with Russia<\/span><\/a> through remittances and trade; while placing no restrictions on Russian businesses and citizens that relocated to Georgia after the invasion began.<\/span><\/p>\n

Publicly<\/span><\/a>, Georgian Dream frames their posture towards Russia as a pragmatic foreign policy choice. Drawing on NATO\u2019s lack of military support during the 2008 August War and lack of security guarantees following, they claim that Georgia <\/span>cannot<\/span><\/a> rely on the United States and other Western partners for protection. From their view, n<\/span>ational survival can only be guaranteed through balancing relations with both Russia and the West; not prioritizing alignment with one over the other.<\/span><\/p>\n

What explains Georgian Dream\u2019s refusal to align with the Western position on the war, despite facing similar conflict with Russia in the past and ongoing partial occupation like Ukraine? <\/span>High-level Georgian government officials<\/span><\/a> justify their disengagement as risk-avoidance; preventing the United States and other NATO allies from opening a second front on Georgian territory. This mirrors Russian claims of Ukraine being used to stage a <\/span>proxy war<\/span><\/a> between Russia and NATO. Georgian Dream\u2019s rhetoric negates Russia\u2019s role as the primary threat to Georgian national security, and the primary aggressor in the region. Under the guise of <\/span>neutrality<\/span><\/a>, they place the blame for any further escalation of regional tensions on the West.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, democratic backsliding at the domestic level indicates multiple reasons behind this approach. Particularly since the <\/span>October 2024 parliamentary elections<\/span><\/a>, Georgian Dream has moved to consolidate a one-party state. Ensuring the continuity of their rule necessitates the government <\/span>pushing<\/span><\/a> Western democracies that would hold them accountable out of the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

With their increased isolation from the West resulting in domestic unpopularity, Georgian Dream\u2019s regime survival is at risk. To maintain power, they are actively seeking alliances with other revisionist authoritarians like <\/span>China and Iran<\/span><\/a>. Enhanced alignment with China, in particular, has given Georgian Dream room to maneuver in the short-term. However, it poses long-term risks to Georgia\u2019s national security and sovereignty; as well as its ability to maintain a posture of strategic autonomy without permanently isolating Western partners.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ties with China have been primarily deepened through economic investment and trade. Georgia and China signed a <\/span>Strategic Partnership Agreement<\/span><\/a> in 2023. Soon after, China began investing directly in Georgian strategic infrastructure projects. In May 2024, a Chinese-Singaporean consortium \u201c<\/span>… won the tender for constructing [Georgia’s first and only] deep-sea port at Ankalia on the Black Sea<\/span><\/a>.\u201d Following that, China expressed interest in building a new Tbilisi airport on the site of the Vaziani airfield and military base. If approved, this would negate Vaziani\u2019s value as a \u201c<\/span>… key strategic base<\/span><\/a>\u201d <\/span>for joint military exercises<\/span><\/a> with the U.S. and other NATO partners. Several PRC state-owned companies remain active in building strategically-located transportation infrastructure <\/span>across Georgia<\/span><\/a>. With these investments, China gains control over key points in East-West trade along the Trans-Caspian International Transit Route (<\/span>Middle Corridor<\/span><\/a>); with several having the potential for dual military use.<\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, in recent months, the Georgian government has purchased significant quantities of Chinese surveillance technologies. Procured from Chinese technology firms like \u201c<\/span>… Huawei, Hikvision, and Dahua<\/span><\/a>,\u201d AI-driven crowd control and digital surveillance systems have been adopted for internal policing. Said technologies have been <\/span>directly used<\/span><\/a> to suppress the ongoing anti-Georgian Dream protest movement. <\/span>Chinese-made customs control systems<\/span><\/a> provided<\/span><\/a> to Georgian border checkpoints in 2024 have further involved Chinese technology directly in Georgia\u2019s national security infrastructure. Through both, China gains access to Georgian civilian and government data; with data leakages presenting a security concern as <\/span>Russo-Chinese<\/span><\/a> military cooperation continues to deepen.<\/span><\/p>\n

Georgian Dream has also invested in its relationship with <\/span>Iran<\/span><\/a>, albeit to a lesser extent than with China. Since they first came to power twelve years prior, \u201c<\/span>… trade with Iran has tripled\u2026 and [the number] of direct investments [has] increased fivefold<\/span><\/a>.\u201d However, any steps towards further economic cooperation raise the risk of Georgian Dream officials facing <\/span>more sanctions<\/span><\/a> by Western states. Despite this, <\/span>political ties<\/span><\/a> between the two states have <\/span>continued<\/span><\/a> to deepen, demonstrating the Georgian government\u2019s increased political neutrality towards anti-Western regimes. <\/span>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

As state capture consolidates domestically, once-steadfast partners are <\/span>calling out<\/span><\/a> the Georgian Dream government\u2019s \u201c<\/span>… open challenge to the West<\/span><\/a>\u201d on the international stage. With no demonstrated will for reconciliation, Georgia will continue to lose the security guarantees it requires to avoid becoming \u201c<\/span>… prey for regional hegemons<\/span><\/a>.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Georgian government will continue to seek out alternative security patrons amongst its newfound allies \u2014 namely, China. However, relations between fellow revisionist powers (Russia and China, in this case) remain the priority; meaning China will <\/span>refuse<\/span><\/a> to intercede in any future Russian aggression against Georgia. Ultimately, Georgian Dream\u2019s attempt at a strategic autonomy-based foreign policy only pushes the country closer to Russia\u2019s control; trading short-term regime survival for eventual loss of sovereignty.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Forbes Opinion is a non-editorial category created by individuals with diverse interests and ideas. The texts published within this category represent the views of the authors and may not reflect the position of Forbes Georgia\u2019s editorial team.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Georgia\u2019s foreign policy trajectory under Georgian Dream is a warning. In the current era of great power competition, insecure small states are becoming prime targets for authoritarian manipulation. NATO\u2019s attention to its periphery has lagged \u2014 allowing once-reliable partners to drift, hedge, and in some cases, recalibrate entirely.\u00a0 For Moscow and Beijing, the post-Cold War […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":797,"featured_media":205805,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1747,1768],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-205803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-opinions","has-thumb"],"yoast_head":"\nStrategic Autonomy?: Understanding Georgia\u2019s Foreign Policy Realignment • Forbes Georgia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dev.forbes.ge\/en\/strategic-autonomy-understanding-georgia-s-foreign-policy-realignment\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Strategic Autonomy?: Understanding Georgia\u2019s Foreign Policy Realignment • Forbes Georgia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Georgia\u2019s foreign policy trajectory under Georgian Dream is a warning. 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