{"id":89338,"date":"2021-03-25T13:58:25","date_gmt":"2021-03-25T09:58:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forbes.ge\/erdogan-calls-on-turks-to-help-stabilize-the-lira-as-investors-fear-a-monetary-crisis\/"},"modified":"2021-10-31T19:42:06","modified_gmt":"2021-10-31T15:42:06","slug":"erdogan-calls-on-turks-to-help-stabilize-the-lira-as-investors-fear-a-monetary-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.forbes.ge\/en\/erdogan-calls-on-turks-to-help-stabilize-the-lira-as-investors-fear-a-monetary-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Erdogan calls on Turks to help stabilize the lira as investors fear a monetary crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Inflation, a currency drop and rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves: These are among the risks investors and emerging market economists are warning of following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan\u2019s firing of his hawkish former central bank chief over the weekend.<\/p>\n

The move, which represented the third such sacking in two years, sent the Turkish lira\u2019s value plunging\u00a0\u2014\u00a0<\/em>but Erdogan maintains that the economy is just fine, telling his ruling AK Party members in a speech Wednesday that this week\u2019s market volatility doesn\u2019t reflect Turkey\u2019s economic reality, according to a Reuters translation.<\/p>\n

In the same speech, however, he urged Turks to sell their foreign exchange assets and gold and buy lira-based financial instruments, in an effort to stabilize the beleaguered currency that\u2019s\u00a0lost 10% of its value<\/a><\/span>\u00a0since Friday.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe return of volatility,\u201d read the headline of an analyst note from Barclays on Monday. \u201cRisk of currency crisis grows,\u201d wrote London-based firm Capital Economics. It described how former central bank Governor Naci Agbal, who had set out to tackle Turkey\u2019s double-digit inflation by raising its key interest rate by 875 basis points since taking the job in November, had imbued confidence in investors.<\/p>\n

But Erdogan has long been of the unorthodox view that higher interest rates cause inflation and are \u201cevil.\u201d Analysts say it was only a matter of time before Agbal was replaced with someone more malleable to Erdogan\u2019s views, stoking investor fears over the central bank\u2019s lack of autonomy and a coming inflation and currency crisis.<\/p>\n

Agbal\u2019s replacement, Sahap Kavcioglu, many Turkey experts say, lacks experience in the field and has a history of criticizing interest rate hikes, sparking worries of uncontrolled inflation.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt looks like the central bank\u2019s efforts to fight the country\u2019s inflation problem may come to an end, and a messy balance of payments crisis has become (once again) a real possibility,\u201d Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, wrote. Turkey\u2019s inflation is at 15%, youth unemployment is at 25% and the dollar is up more than 10% on the lira since the firing.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe summary dismissal of Agbal ranks among the most counterproductive government actions in Turkey\u2019s recent history,\u201d Erik Meyersson, senior economist at Handelsbanken Macro Research in Stockholm, told CNBC. \u201cIt will instantly erode any credibility built up during Agbal, increase the risk premium on Turkish financial assets, and force the remaining policymakers to walk an even more difficult tightrope going forward.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Office of the Turkish Presidency did not reply to a CNBC request for comment.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

cnbc<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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