{"id":99861,"date":"2022-02-27T23:00:59","date_gmt":"2022-02-27T19:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forbes.ge\/belarusi-usaphrthkhoebis-kidev-erthi-gamotsveva\/"},"modified":"2022-02-28T00:47:32","modified_gmt":"2022-02-27T20:47:32","slug":"belarus-a-new-security-threat-in-the-making","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dev.forbes.ge\/en\/belarus-a-new-security-threat-in-the-making\/","title":{"rendered":"Belarus: a New Security Threat in the Making"},"content":{"rendered":"

It has been almost a year since the European Union and the United States enacted sanctions against Belarus due to the government\u2019s crackdown on the protests following the country\u2019s rigged presidential elections. Despite isolating Minsk, Western measures have not had any efficient impact as they have fallen short in ending the authoritarian regime. The Western ostracization of Belarus has pushed Lukashenko unprecedentedly closer to Moscow as Russia has expanded its economic and military leverage over Minsk. However, Russian support has come with strings attached, and the patron-client relationship which the two countries have entered has become a new opportunity for the Kremlin to garner political and economic control over Minsk and to turn Belarus into its military place d\u2019armes. In the meantime, as the world is observing Russia\u2019s ongoing aggression against Ukraine, important political developments have been relatively unnoticed. Belarus has recently made constitutional amendments, which might remove Belarus\u2019s commitment to be neutral and free of nuclear weapons. In the meantime, the content of the November military doctrine agreed by Minsk and Moscow, which was made public only recently, does not forbid Russia to deploy its nuclear infrastructure to its neighbouring Belarus. These developments indicate that Europe may face even greater security threats than the current Russian invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Part of Putin\u2019s Russian Empire<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Russia has always been a powerful economic and political partner for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, supporting the current authoritarian regime for 27 years. However, the relationship between the two states has always been\u00a0unstable. Belarus has never been interested in being part of \u2018Ruskiy Mir\u2019 (the Russian World) and even \u201cflirted\u201d with the West to antagonize Moscow. The Belarusian government even\u00a0removed\u00a0pro-Russian figures from the country\u2019s security apparatus in the mid-2010s. In 2014, when Russia undertook its military campaign against Ukraine, Lukashenko remained neutral and refused to recognize Russian claims on the Crimean Peninsula. The Belarusian president emphasized that he would not permit any attacks against Ukraine from Belarus proper. Lukashenko also\u00a0showed\u00a0readiness to act as a mediator between Moscow and Kyiv and to host peace negotiations in Minsk to diffuse the conflict. The position of neutrality in the conflict paid off, as it boosted Lukashenko\u2019s international image, with Minsk becoming a hub for Ukraine-Russia air traffic following the 2015\u00a0ban\u00a0of all direct flights between the two states.<\/p>\n

August 2020, however, marked the dawn of a new period, in which Lukashenko violently cracked down on nationwide protests over a rigged presidential election. The Kremlin directly assisted Lukashenko to effectively overcome months of street rallies and weather sanctions. Putin also\u00a0promised\u00a0the Belarusian leader military assistance if things went \u201cout of control.\u201d Despite such guarantees, Russian aid to Lukashenko has not come without significant consequences. Having been isolated by the West, the Belarusian dictator has had no choice but to play the game according to the Kremlin\u2019s rules. While Lukashenko has sided with Russia, Ukraine has broadly aligned itself with the West. Over the past year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has become increasingly critical of Lukashenko. In July, Kyiv joined the West in\u00a0restricting\u00a0flights from entering the Belarusian airspace following the forced-landing of a Ryanair plane in May, an incident that has been branded as an act of \u201cstate-sponsored piracy\u201d. In the meantime, Lukashenko has also\u00a0accused\u00a0Kyiv of being involved in \u201cforeign plots\u201d aimed at destabilising Belarus through the use of militants that had been trained in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

A new threat <\/strong><\/h5>\n

An invasion via\u00a0Belarus has always been part of Ukraine\u2019s fears. Nevertheless, the threat became real on February 24, when the Ukrainian state border service reported that along with Crimea and Russia, it was attacked through the Belarus border. Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin have conducted five rounds of negotiations on the so-called Union State, a\u00a0project\u00a0aimed to deepen\u00a0political and economic integration between Russia and Belarus. On September 9, after\u00a0the fifth meeting in 2021, a\u00a028-point road map\u00a0was introduced with the goal to bind the two countries closer together. Lukashenko expressed his interest in closer integration with Russia, even though it is apparent that the integration project dramatically limits Minsk\u2019s independence.<\/p>\n

On September 12, Lukashenka announced plans to deploy Russian S-400 air defence systems near northern districts of Ukraine \u201cto protect his country\u2019s border with Ukraine.\u201d The statement came after Moscow held one of its largest joint exercises with Belarus on Ukraine\u2019s northern flank in September, involving around 200 000 troops. The Belarusian dictator also highlighted that the defence system was part of a $1 billion arms package agreed upon during the September summit in Moscow, which indicated the Kremlin\u2019s pre-war preparations.<\/p>\n

Belarus is emerging as a next-level security threat to Ukraine and entire Europe as Russia has been effectively cementing a permanent military presence in the country as well as utilising it as a frontline in the ongoing military aggression against Ukraine. While the Russian forces have been in Belarus ostensibly for military exercises that took place near the Ukrainian border and were scheduled to wrap up on February 20, Belarus has recently announced that the estimated 30 000 Russian troops currently in the country would have a permanent presence. Additionally, considering the content of the November military doctrine agreed by Minsk and Moscow, which became known only recently, and the constitutional amendments in Belarus, there is a greater possibility of the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus. These possible developments may have far greater implications for the West than the ongoing Russian military aggression against Ukraine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It has been almost a year since the European Union and the United States enacted sanctions against Belarus due to the government\u2019s crackdown on the protests following the country\u2019s rigged presidential elections. Despite isolating Minsk, Western measures have not had any efficient impact as they have fallen short in ending the authoritarian regime. The Western […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":99857,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1747,1768,1752,1754,1755,1805],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all-news","category-opinions","category-politics-en","category-region-en","category-world","category-phorbs-mosazreba-en","has-thumb"],"yoast_head":"\nBelarus: a New Security Threat in the Making • Forbes Georgia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dev.forbes.ge\/en\/belarus-a-new-security-threat-in-the-making\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Belarus: a New Security Threat in the Making • Forbes Georgia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It has been almost a year since the European Union and the United States enacted sanctions against Belarus due to the government\u2019s crackdown on the protests following the country\u2019s rigged presidential elections. 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